Überdispersion: A phenomenon from the statistics shows how erratic spread of the Coronavirus
Dozens of people were celebrating in a Bar – with far-reaching consequences. The case report from the United States before the eyes, how quickly the Coronavirus spreads, under certain conditions, and what we can do about it.
It should be a happy evening. However, the Party turned out to be later, as a study case for the CDC: In February, dozens of people were celebrating in a Bar, in the U.S. state of Illinois. The Bar was re-opened and the operator loaded areas of the celebration in the interior. It was a joyful evening with consequences.
26 guests and three employees affected in connection to Covid-19. This, in turn, infected 17 other people, including twelve cases in eight households with children, two in a school sports team, and three in a nursing home. At least 46 Corona cases were finally brought the night in the connection. A school had taken the precaution of closing. For the 650 students 9100 days of classes together accounted for.
Überdispersion – a engine of the pandemic
Case examples such as this, there are always. They show how quickly and abruptly the Coronavirus can spread. From a district with a low infection can happen in this way within a short time, a Hotspot. The observation of a statistical phenomenon, which is called Überdispersion. Simply put, this means: all the Corona Infected with the Virus in the same dimension. While the bulk of the Corona-infected Infected hardly further, there is a single Diseased, the drag a number of subsequent infections and spreaders so-called Super. Experts estimate that around ten percent of Corona-Infected for about eighty percent of all Transfers of responsibility.
But what makes a Corona-Infected people to a super-spreader? According to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) are three aspects of particular importance: the characteristics of the Person himself, special circumstances, but also how receptive people present to the Virus.
- “The individual’s infectivity is likely a large spread, so that a few people are very infectious, and many of the less infectious,” writes the RKI. It is also known that some people stand out for their very many infectious particles in Breathing, Speaking, or Singing.
- The Coronavirus has especially in small spaces with poor ventilation, easy game. The risk for a number of infection increases with the duration of the stay, or if, in addition, sung, spoken aloud, or play Sport.
- The personal risk profile of the participants plays a role in the question of whether a Meeting to a super-spreading Event, and above all, the age of the present, and to the vaccination status.
Came to the larger Corona outbreaks, among other things, in the case of a choir samples, in gyms, religious events, during a bus ride in China or in a nightclub. Meet in closed spaces with poor ventilation, crowds of people, and conversations without the mask should be avoided, therefore, advises the RKI.
Comes to a similar conclusion as the CDC, which reported on the Bar outbreak in Illinois. Open the localities in which, potentially, multiple people come together, care should be taken, therefore, very keen on hygiene measures, and the Meeting will be held Outdoors, the Council of experts.
An additional glimmer of hope there is, according to the CDC experts, but The risk for a number of subsequent infections is decreasing when enough people are vaccinated against the Coronavirus. The dreaded super-spreading Events – one of the main engines of the pandemic – going piece by piece and syringe for injection of Fuel.
Source:Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) / the Robert Koch Institute (RKI)