Coronavirus: Run more Tests to really more cases?

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Jeff Horseman
Jeff Horseman
Jeff Horseman got into journalism because he liked to write and stunk at math. He grew up in Vermont and he honed his interviewing skills as a supermarket cashier by asking Bernie Sanders “Paper or plastic?” After graduating from Syracuse University in 1999, Jeff began his journalistic odyssey at The Watertown Daily Times in upstate New York, where he impressed then-U.S. Senate candidate Hillary Clinton so much she called him “John” at the end of an interview. From there, he went to Annapolis, Maryland, where he covered city, county and state government at The Capital newspaper. Today, Jeff writes about anything and everything. Along the way, Jeff has covered wildfires, a tropical storm, 9/11 and the Dec. 2 terror attack in San Bernardino. If you have a question or story idea about politics or the inner workings of government, please let Jeff know. He’ll do his best to answer, even if it involves a little math.

Coronavirus
More Tests lead to more cases? A glance at the data provides the answer

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In Germany, the Infection will increase with the Coronavirus – also, the number of Tests has been recently ramped up exponentially. However, more Tests automatically to more cases? Quite so simple it is not.

Test, test, test – in the fight against the Corona pandemic was the long time the foreign exchange. Also in Germany, the Test were run-capacity, massively high. At the beginning of August a test compulsory for travellers returning from high risk countries entered into force. Alone in the 33. Calendar week, Germany, carried out far more than every year, some 875,000 Tests, the previous maximum value in the pandemic. The competent laboratories of sparks, but quickly SOS you afterwards to come with the evaluation of the samples, it said. Federal Minister of health, Jens Spahn is now planning a return to the original strategy, as he explained on Wednesday: “We test to the end of the travel period targeted patients with symptoms and people with contact to the Infected.”

Not only the number of Tests was increased in the last few weeks, the number of New infections with the Coronavirus rose sharply. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) reported today an increase of 1576 new cases compared to the previous day. In the past few days, the value has already exceeded the 2000 mark. A connection is seemingly: Run more Tests does not automatically lead to more positive cases? The increased capacity for testing, perhaps even the decisive reason for the increase in the number of New infections? The issues currently are many.

A look in the official statistics (see table below) of the RKI is not Quite as simple as it is. In the 28. Calendar week (beginning of July) were carried out 510.103 Tests, of which 2990 were positive. The resulting positive rate is 0.59 percent. About five weeks later (calendar week 33) was the number of Tests in 875.524, which 8407 were positive. The positive rate was 0.96 percent. These values are set in connection, is shown: The number of Tests in order to increased in the observed period 72 percent. The number of new infections by 181 percent. Alone with the increased number of the Tests this difference is not explained. Also, the increase in the positive rate indicates an increased infection happen.

Calendar week

2020

Number Of Tests

Tested positive

Positive rate

Up to and incl. KW10

124.716

3.892

3.12% of the

11

127.457

7.582

5,95%

12

348.619

23.820

6,83%

13

361.515

31.414

8,69%

14

408.348

36.885

9,03%

15

380.197

30.791

8,10%

16

331.902

22.082

6,65%

17

363.890

18.083

4,97%

18

326.788

12.608

3.86% of

19

403.875

10.755

2,66%

20

432.666

7.233

1,67%

21

353.467

5.218

1,48%

22

405.269

Of 4,310

1,06%

23

340.986

3.208

0.94% of

24

326.645

Is responsible for 2,816

0,86%

25

387.484

5.309

1,37%

26

466.459

3.670

0.79% of

27

504.082

3.080

0,61%

28

510.103

2.990

0.59% of

29

538.229

3.483

0,65%

30

570.746

4.464

0,78%

31

578.099

5.634

0,97%

32

730.300

7.256

0,99%

33

875.524

8.407

0.96% of

Total

10.197.366

264.990

Source: Robert Koch-Institut (RKI)/Covid-19-management report of 19.08.2020

Many infections abroad

100 Corona-testing of a is positive. Five weeks previously it was just one of 200. The Höchsstand in the positive rate were recorded in March in calendar week 14: at that Time there were nine of 100 in the case of a positive rate of 9.03 percent. This is achieved in spite of the current increase. However, the sample is to be from the Tests taken, an other: at the beginning of the pandemic in the first place “reasonable suspicion cases tested”. These included people who had contact with a confirmed Covid-19-case or within the last 14 days in a RKI-called risk area have been and Symptoms such as fever, hoarseness, cough or shortness of breath showed.

Since the spread of the Virus is now increasingly in the population, are being tested today, in principle, all people with relevant symptoms. Travelers returning from holiday countries seem to provide for the current increase in the positive rate, such as further statistics of the RKI suggests.

Finally, the proportion of people who have been infected, probably abroad with the Coronavirus attached to was, at around 40 percent (KW33). This corresponds approximately to the level of March, after the value was temporarily dropped to 0. With the beginning of the border openings, the Numbers rose again. Most recently the countries of the Western Balkans, Turkey, Bulgaria, Spain, Romania and Poland as a probable infection countries were called.

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